What are the KPIs for a premiership-winning team? It adds up to only four clubs a hope of winning 2023 NRL title

Every champion team has certain identifiable characteristics as well as plenty of intangible ones. 

But is it possible to predict, based on the evidence of the first 25 seasons of the NRL era, who can and cannot win the premiership this time around?

An in-depth analysis of 13 key performance indicators for the 13-a-side game reveals there are only four teams who stand a chance of holding the Provan-Summons Trophy aloft on October 1 at Accor Stadium. 

That is, if you believe in the weight of history when it comes to how the previous 25 teams have stacked up when it comes to lead-up form, attack and defence stats, for and against, home and away records, their number of Origin reps, how experienced their coach was and goal-kicking percentages.

After tallying up all the records over the past quarter-century and then eliminating the current teams – Survivor style – that don’t meet those benchmarks, there are 13 that are either no hope or in need of a drastic turnaround in the remaining months of the season to become premiers.

Here are the key stats and how important they are in building a premiership-winning team

Key performance indicators for premiers

Lead-up form 

Of the 25 premiership-winning teams since 1998, all but three of them made the finals the previous season.

The only outliers were the 2003 Panthers, who were 12th the year before, the 2005 Tigers (up from their customary ninth in ‘04) and the 2013 Roosters, who were all the way down in 13th spot 12 months earlier.

Seventeen premiers (68%) finished in the top four the year before. 

The halfway mark of a premiership season is a more reliable indicator with only Tim Sheens’ Tigers surging all the way from outside the top eight – they were 11th in ‘05 before completing their improbable run.

And when it comes to the regular season, it’s clear – you have to finish in the top four if you want to get your hands on the trophy. No one has done so from a lower rank since the 1995 Bulldogs.

Year	Premiers	Previous season	Halfway mark of season	Regular season finish
1998	Broncos	Premiers	5th	1st
1999	Storm	3rd	3rd	3rd
2000	Broncos	8th	1st	1st
2001	Knights	3rd	1st	3rd
2002	Roosters	6th	6th	4th
2003	Panthers	12th	3rd	1st
2004	Bulldogs	3rd	2nd	2nd
2005	Tigers	9th	11th	4th
2006	Broncos	3rd	1st	3rd
2007	Storm*	Minor premiers	1st	1st
2008	Sea Eagles	2nd	1st	2nd
2009	Storm*	Minor premiers	6th	4th
2010	Dragons	Minor premiers	1st	1st
2011	Sea Eagles	8th	3rd	2nd
2012	Storm	Minor premiers	1st	2nd
2013	Roosters	13th	3rd	1st
2014	Rabbitohs	2nd	5th	3rd
2015	Cowboys	5th	2nd	3rd
2016	Sharks	6th	1st	3rd
2017	Storm	2nd	1st	1st
2018	Roosters	2nd	7th	1st
2019	Roosters	Premiers	3rd	2nd
2020	Storm	2nd	3rd	2nd
2021	Panthers	2nd	1st	2nd
2022	Panthers	Premiers	1st	1st

Attack and defence 

The old adage that premierships are built on defence is not necessarily true. 

And you don’t always have to score the most points to emerge as premiers, but it definitely helps. 

Only three of the 25 champion outfits didn’t finish in the top four for points scored – the 2002 Roosters (sixth), ‘06 Broncos (12th) and ‘10 Dragons (eighth). 

And you need to rack up 40 at least once in the season – only the St George Illawarra side of 13 years ago, which topped out at 38, didn’t make it out of the 30s. 

When it comes to defence, it definitely helps to be stingy but it’s not as important as it’s made out to be. 

One in every five premiership-winning side has been ranked fifth or lower for points conceded – the 1999 Storm history-makers (fifth), Newcastle two years later (ninth), the ‘03 Panthers (seventh), the ‘05 Tigers (10th) and the Cowboys of 2015, who were fifth.

And it is true that if you concede 50 in the regular season, you won’t become premiers although Newcastle in 2001 and the Roosters the following year were each a missed conversion away from having a half-century put on them. 

Year	Premiers	Rank in attack	Rank in defence	Highest score	Most points conceded
1998	Broncos	1st	1st	60	28
1999	Storm	1st	5th	62	34
2000	Broncos	1st	1st	56	28
2001	Knights	2nd	9th	60	49
2002	Roosters	6th	1st	58	48
2003	Panthers	3rd	7th	52	42
2004	Bulldogs	1st	3rd	54	40
2005	Tigers	2nd	10th	54	44
2006	Broncos	12th	1st	50	36
2007	Storm*	1st	1st	58	30
2008	Sea Eagles	1st	2nd	52	40
2009	Storm*	11th	2nd	48	26
2010	Dragons	8th	1st	38	32
2011	Sea Eagles	1st	2nd	42	32
2012	Storm	2nd	1st	46	40
2013	Roosters	1st	1st	56	32
2014	Rabbitohs	3rd	1st	50	30
2015	Cowboys	2nd	5th	50	44
2016	Sharks	3rd	2nd	62	32
2017	Storm	1st	1st	64	38
2018	Roosters	4th	1st	56	30
2019	Roosters	2nd	2nd	58	38
2020	Storm	3rd	2nd	50	30
2021	Panthers	4th	1st	56	37
2022	Panthers	1st	1st	46	38

For and against

The benchmark for premiers is to be at least 100 points up at the end of the regular season when it comes to for and against. 

As is often the case with these metrics, the ragtag 2005 Tigers look like the least probable premiers after only finishing 101 points plus.

But the star-studded Broncos the following year were only four points better before Wayne Bennett secured his final trophy for Brisbane.

Year	Premiers	F&A differential
1998	Broncos	378
1999	Storm	392
2000	Broncos	308
2001	Knights	143
2002	Roosters	216
2003	Panthers	132
2004	Bulldogs	269
2005	Tigers	101
2006	Broncos	105
2007	Storm*	277
2008	Sea Eagles	290
2009	Storm*	157
2010	Dragons	219
2011	Sea Eagles	208
2012	Storm	218
2013	Roosters	315
2014	Rabbitohs	224
2015	Cowboys	133
2016	Sharks	176
2017	Storm	297
2018	Roosters	181
2019	Roosters	264
2020	Storm	258
2021	Panthers	286
2022	Panthers	306

Home and away record

To be the premiers, you have to win at least eight of your home matches with only the 2014 Rabbitohs, who went 7-5 as hosts, falling short of that benchmark. 

And you can’t be a slouch on the road either – all the premiers have managed to win at least half of their away fixtures, apart from the asterisk-addled 2009 Storm side which won just five of 12 games outside of Victoria. 

Although they made up for that by getting up in nine of their 11 matches in Melbourne.

Year	Premiers	Home record	Away record
1998	Broncos	10-2	8-3
1999	Storm	9-3	7-5
2000	Broncos	12-0	6-6
2001	Knights	9-4	7-5
2002	Roosters	8-3	7-5
2003	Panthers	8-4	10-2
2004	Bulldogs	11-1	8-4
2005	Tigers	8-4	6-6
2006	Broncos	8-4	6-6
2007	Storm*	12-0	9-3
2008	Sea Eagles	9-3	8-4
2009	Storm*	9-2	5-7
2010	Dragons	9-3	8-4
2011	Sea Eagles	11-1	7-5
2012	Storm	9-3	8-4
2013	Roosters	8-4	10-2
2014	Rabbitohs	7-5	8-4
2015	Cowboys	8-4	9-3
2016	Sharks	11-1	6-5
2017	Storm	9-3	11-1
2018	Roosters	8-4	8-4
2019	Roosters	9-3	8-4
2020	Storm	9-1	7-3
2021	Panthers	12-0	9-3
2022	Panthers	10-2	10-2

Origin reps, coach’s experience, goal-kicking?

You would think the more Origin representatives you have, the better your chances are to win the competition. And that pretty much bears out.

It’s not an exact science because a team like the Warriors (if they ever won) wouldn’t necessarily have many NSW or Queensland players. 

On average, the premiers have 4.76 Origin reps that season but it varies wildly. Seven teams had three or less with the unheralded Panthers and Tigers a couple of decades ago snubbed altogether.

Whether your team has an inexperienced coach or a grizzled old soul calling the shots – the average in terms of seasons experience per premiership-winning mentor is 9.76.

But that number has been inflated by Wayne Bennett and Craig Bellamy’s success while there have been seven occasions where coaches have guided their team to glory within their first five years in the caper. 

Goal-kicking is also not as crucial as you might think. 

In the past decade, no premiership-winning side has kicked at less than 73% but only five of the previous champions were above that mark, which is probably a reflection of the greater accuracy across the board in recent years.

Year	Premiers	Origin reps	Coach experience	Goal-kicking %
1998	Broncos	11	12th season	67.9
1999	Storm	4	10th season	62.9
2000	Broncos	7	14th season	72.7
2001	Knights	4	1st season	80.6
2002	Roosters	3	1st season	76.7
2003	Panthers	0	10th season	70
2004	Bulldogs	5	7th season	83.2
2005	Tigers	0	21st season	81.6
2006	Broncos	9	20th season	71.2
2007	Storm*	7	5th season	69.2
2008	Sea Eagles	1	5th season	67.3
2009	Storm*	6	7th season	71.5
2010	Dragons	7	24th season	74
2011	Sea Eagles	4	8th season	70.5
2012	Storm	4	10th season	70.9
2013	Roosters	4	1st season	84.1
2014	Rabbitohs	3	3rd season	79.1
2015	Cowboys	4	2nd season	75.6
2016	Sharks	4	6th season	73.6
2017	Storm	6	15th season	75.4
2018	Roosters	3	6th season	74.8
2019	Roosters	3	7th season	75.2
2020	Storm	6	18th season	86.2
2021	Panthers	7	15th season	82
2022	Panthers	7	16th season	83.6

Survivor style, what does it all mean? 

So if you apply these trends to the 2023 premiership, who is still in the running for the trophy? 

No one has come from lower than 13th the year before so that means the Knights, Warriors and last year’s wooden spooners Wests Tigers get the red line put through them. 

Panthers Sharks Cowboys Eels Storm Roosters Rabbitohs Raiders Broncos Dragons Manly Bulldogs Titans KnightsWarriorsTigers  Dolphins

You can’t be 12th or lower at the halfway point of the season, if history is any guide, so that’s bad news for the Eels, Titans, Cowboys, Bulldogs and Dragons. 

Panthers Sharks CowboysEels Storm Roosters Rabbitohs Raiders Broncos Dragons Manly BulldogsTitansKnightsWarriorsTigers  Dolphins

That means the remaining nine teams need to finish the regular season in the top four.

Premiership-winning teams can’t be ranked below 12th in attack so that means the Sea Eagles, Storm and Roosters are not going to be premiers based on their current ratings of 13th, 14th and 17th respectively. 

Panthers Sharks CowboysEelsStormRoosters Rabbitohs Raiders Broncos DragonsManlyBulldogsTitansKnightsWarriorsTigers  Dolphins

And your defence can be no lower than 10th so of the remaining six sides, the Dolphins (12th) and Raiders (16th) don’t survive this cut. 

Panthers Sharks CowboysEelsStormRoosters Rabbitohs Raiders Broncos DragonsManlyBulldogsTitansKnightsWarriorsTigers  Dolphins

That leaves four possible premiers – have they scored 38 or more in a game? Penrith – 53, tick. Cronulla – 44, tick. Souths – 50, tick. Brisbane have done so three times – tick, tick, tick. 

Panthers Sharks CowboysEelsStormRoosters Rabbitohs Raiders Broncos DragonsManlyBulldogsTitansKnightsWarriorsTigers  Dolphins

Have any of them conceded 50? Broncos let in 32 against the Bunnies, who had 36 put on them by Parra. Cronulla’s worst is 36 while 20 is the most anyone’s put on Penrith so far this season.

Panthers Sharks CowboysEelsStormRoosters Rabbitohs Raiders Broncos DragonsManlyBulldogsTitansKnightsWarriorsTigers  Dolphins

For and against wise, the Panthers and Rabbitohs are already into three figures and the Broncos and Sharks are knocking on the door, so nothing to see here, move along.

Panthers Sharks CowboysEelsStormRoosters Rabbitohs Raiders Broncos DragonsManlyBulldogsTitansKnightsWarriorsTigers  Dolphins

For and against wise, the Panthers and Rabbitohs are already into three figures and the Broncos and Sharks are knocking on the door, so nothing to see here, move along.

Home and away record, they’re all smashing it on the road but Cronulla are only just staying alive at 3-4 at Shark Park.

Panthers Sharks CowboysEelsStormRoosters Rabbitohs Raiders Broncos DragonsManlyBulldogsTitansKnightsWarriorsTigers  Dolphins

As for the remaining factors like Origin reps, their coach’s experience and goal-kicking , the Panthers are leaders in all three categories with six NSW players in game one, Ivan Cleary having a lot more years under his belt than Jason Demetriou, Craig Fitzgibbon and Kevin Walters and Penrith nailing kicks at 87.7% through Nathan Cleary and Stephen Crichton.

So there you have it. 

Based on these key performance indicators, there are realistically only four teams that could become premiers this year unless there are drastic form changes in the remaining rounds of the season. 

And those Panthers from Sydney’s west look like they’re well on track to becoming the first team since the 1983 Parramatta Eels to pull off the rare premiership three-peat. 

But if you’ve made it this far you will know that the only surefire prediction you can make in rugby league is that until their team is are no longer a mathematical chance, every fan has hope.

And it’s the hope that kills you.