Eighteen teams have been reduced to eight, and after a week of anticipation, the AFL finals series is finally here. While it is highly likely that the 2023 premiers will come from the top four teams – Collingwood, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, and Melbourne – history has shown that anything can happen. The teams from the bottom half of the eight – St Kilda, GWS, Sydney, and Carlton – all have a chance to defy the odds and make a deep run in September. Here is a breakdown of why each team can claim premiership glory on September 30… and why they may fall short.
-
Collingwood
Why they can:
They have been the minor premiers for a reason. Collingwood has been consistently at the top of the ladder throughout the season, winning close games and showing the ability to steady the ship when things get tough.
Why they can’t:
They may have peaked too early. With three losses from their last five games, including victories over non-finalist teams, Collingwood’s recent form isn’t that of a typical premiership favorite. They also have a negative record against their fellow top four teams and are missing key player Nick Daicos.
-
Brisbane
Why they can:
The Lions have a dominant home ground advantage at the Gabba, where they haven’t been defeated in over a year. They have a strong record against potential preliminary final opponents and don’t have to leave their home ground to reach the grand final.
Why they can’t:
Their finals record at the Gabba hasn’t been as impressive, with four defeats in the last five seasons. Although they have performed well throughout the home-and-away season, their ability to perform under pressure in finals remains a question mark.
-
Port Adelaide
Why they can:
Port Adelaide has two of the best midfielders in the competition – Butters and Rozee. They complement each other well and can turn a game with their explosiveness and skill. Despite missing out on a top-four finish, they can never be counted out with these key players.
Why they can’t:
Injuries may hinder Port Adelaide’s chances, particularly in the big man department. Key players like Charlie Dixon and Todd Marshall are battling fitness issues, and their absence could impact the team’s performance. The fitness of key players often plays a crucial role in finals success.
-
Melbourne
Why they can:
Melbourne has finished the home-and-away season strong, matching only Carlton’s 7-1 record in their last eight games. They have defeated fellow top-eight teams and have their best lineup available. With a settled team and valuable experience from last year’s disappointing finals campaign, Melbourne is in a good position to contend.
Why they can’t:
Although Melbourne has performed well, they may not have the firepower of the other top-four teams. Their disciplined style of play may not be enough to overcome the explosive and high-scoring brand of football that Collingwood, Brisbane, and Port Adelaide possess.
-
Carlton
Why they can:
Despite finishing fifth, Carlton is in red-hot form heading into September. They have defeated top-four teams and showcased their ability to win games even when not at their best. The Blues have the belief and momentum to go deep in the finals.
Why they can’t:
As a fifth-placed team, Carlton missed out on a top-four finish, which makes their road to the premiership much tougher. They will face a challenging first-round match against Sydney and will likely be the underdogs in subsequent matches. The probability of winning all four finals as an underdog is low.
-
St Kilda
Why they can:
St Kilda has the best defensive record in 2023, conceding the fewest points per match. Their defensive structure and pressure have been instrumental in their success. They have proven themselves against strong opponents and have the ability to grind out wins.
Why they can’t:
Compared to other contenders, St Kilda may not have the same level of talent. Their success has come from their determination and defensive strategies rather than individual star power. While they have exceeded expectations this season, they are considered outsiders for the premiership.
-
GWS
Why they can:
GWS has a wealth of finals experience, having reached the finals in six of the last eight years. They have players like Toby Greene and Josh Kelly who have performed well in high-stakes matches. They have shown strong form leading into the finals and have the desire to redeem themselves after a disappointing 2019 grand final.
Why they can’t:
GWS has the disadvantage of playing all their finals away from home. Winning four consecutive away finals is a tall order, especially with passionate crowds against them. Their small supporter base may also make it challenging to maintain focus and overcome the pressure.
-
Sydney
Why they can:
Sydney’s late-season resurgence is a testament to their resilience and the coaching of John Longmire. They have overcome obstacles and secured a finals spot with a week to spare. Their ability to overcome adversity and treat every game as an elimination final makes them a dangerous team.
Why they can’t:
Despite their late-season success, Sydney’s record against top-eight teams is not impressive. Their lack of wins against fellow finalists raises questions about their ability to compete against the best. Their first-round match against Carlton will be a tough challenge, and securing a premiership from the eighth position is a difficult task.
Each team has its strengths and weaknesses, and the finals series will ultimately determine who emerges as the 2023 AFL premiers. It’s an exciting time for fans and players alike, as anything can happen in September.
First appear at Why every finals team can win the 2023 AFL premiership… and why they can’t
