With just eight matches left to complete the 2023 regular season, there is still little certainty in the race for the top eight.
What is known is that Newcastle have joined Brisbane, Penrith, the Warriors and Melbourne are the only guaranteed finalists although Cronulla would have to be pummelled in the final round to slip out on percentages.
Brisbane and Penrith will finish in the top two although the minor premiership is yet to be decided while the Warriors and Melbourne have sealed a top-four berth after they won on the weekend and the Sharks lost to the Knights.
If Newcastle beat the Dragons and Cronulla account for Canberra, they will host qualifying finals but the Raiders and South Sydney are still each a chance of earning fifth or sixth.
North Queensland and the Roosters are on the outside looking in and even if they win their matches against Penrith and Souths respectively, they still need other results to go their way to make the finals.
Here’s how it all breaks down for each team
The final-round scenarios for each team
1. Brisbane (42 points, 18-5 record, +224 differential)
Run home: Storm (home) on Thursday night.
Adam Reynolds should rest his wonky calf one more week to be right for the playoffs and it looks like Patrick Carrigan will also put his feet up one more match with one of them slightly injured. It is likely they will host the Storm two weeks in a row.
2. Penrith (40 points, 17-6 record, +301 differential)
Run home: Cowboys (home) on Saturday evening.
It wouldn’t surprise to see Ivan Cleary rest the majority of his stars when he names his team on Tuesday or pull them out later in the week if the Broncos wrap up the minor premiership on Thursday night. Although he may want to give Jack Cogger a run at five-eighth alongside Nathan Cleary as a tune-up before the finals now that Jarome Luai has been sidelined with a shoulder injury until the prelim final stage.
(Photo by Dave Rowland/Getty Images)
3. Warriors (38 points, 16-7 record, +148 differential)
Run home: Dolphins (away) on Saturday afternoon.
The clash with the Dolphins will be little more than a glorified training run for the Warriors. They’ve been below their best against some non-contending teams in recent weeks but still winning. A chance to rest a few veterans like Shaun Johnson and Tohu Harris might be difficult for Andrew Webster to resist. Would the Warriors want to slip to fourth to play the Broncos in the first round of the finals or is it better to draw the Panthers first up while Luai is sidelined? If the Storm lose to the Broncos in the first match of the round, the Warriors will be third if they win, lose or draw with the Dolphins.
4. Storm (36 points, 15-8 record, +158 differential)
Run home: Broncos (away) on Thursday.
The return of Ryan Papenhuyzen on Saturday in the win over the Titans was great to see and he will only get better the more game time he gets under his belt. They can’t lose a top-four berth now that Newcastle are their nearest rivals, three points adrift.
5. Newcastle (33 points, 13-1-9 record, +155 differential)
Run home: Dragons (away) on Saturday night.
Predicted finish: It was a near-perfect win over Cronulla and if Kalyn Ponga’s shoulder is OK it’s happy days for Newcastle now that they have locked in a finals spot. They can seal a home elimination final by beating the Dragons but could slip to seventh if they lose and Souths beat the Roosters with the winner of Cronulla-Canberra also going a point ahead of them.
Knights celebrate the try of Kalyn Ponga. (Photo by Jenny Evans/Getty Images)
6. Cronulla (32 points, 13-10 record, +104 differential)
Run home: Raiders (home) on Sunday.
Predicted finish: Their final game of the round is likely to have ramifications not just for themselves and the Raiders with the Cowboys and Roosters potentially deathriding the Green Machine so they can leapfrog them into the playoff mix. A loss will mean seventh is their best finishing position. A heavy defeat could send them to ninth if Souths win and the Cowboys thrash the Panthers but it’d be highly unlikely for those two results to produce a not-so-nice 69-point swing.
7. South Sydney (32 points, 12-11 record, +73 differential)
Run home: Roosters (home) on Friday night.
Predicted finish: They have a relatively simple scenario – win and you’re in. If they get beaten by their 1908 rivals, they can only qualify if the Cowboys and Raiders both lose. They will rise to sixth if they win, potentially fifth if Newcastle and Cronulla lose.
8. Canberra (32 points, 13-10 record, -119 differential)
Run home: Sharks (away) on Sunday.
Predicted finish: Have been tracking poorly over the past month and could still sneak into the finals if they lose but only if the Cowboys and Roosters both go down in their respective matches earlier in the round. If they win, they could rise to sixth if Newcastle lose to the Dragons and the Roosters beat Souths.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
9. North Queensland (30 points, 12-11 record, +36 differential)
Run home: Panthers (away) on Saturday evening.
Predicted finish: They’re relying on Penrith playing an understrength team or having an off night and that won’t happen two weeks in a row. If they beat the premiers, the Cowboys still need Canberra to lose on Sunday or for the Roosters to have beaten Souths on Friday to sneak in. Seventh is their highest finishing position.
10. Roosters (30 points, 12-11 record, -38 differential)
Run home: Rabbitohs (home) on Friday night.
Predicted finish: Just when it looked like they could make a late charge, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves gets himself suspended for two acts of trademark grubbiness while Joey Manu limps off with a hobbled hamstring. If they beat Souths, they still need the Raiders and Cowboys to lose otherwise they could end up ninth due to their poor differential.
11. Parramatta (28 points, 12-12 record, 13 differential)
Run home: Bye.
Predicted finish: Beating the premiers was a great way to end their season but doesn’t make up for the previous 25 rounds of meh.
12. Manly (27 points, 10-1-12 record, -54 differential)
Run home: Tigers (home) on Friday evening.
Predicted finish: Will finish 12th no matter what happens this weekend – for all you Des Hasler fans playing along at home, that’s one position lower than last year when he got the boot.
Daly Cherry-Evans scores. (Photo by Izhar Khan/Getty Images)
13. Gold Coast (22 points, 8-15 record, -130 differential)
Run home: Bulldogs (home) on Sunday.
Predicted finish: The only thing on the line is bragging rights between their Queensland rivals over who avoids finishing fourth among the Sunshine State sides.
14. Dolphins (22 points, 8-15 record, -135 differential)
Run home: Warriors (home) on Saturday.
Predicted finish: See above.
15. Canterbury (20 points, 7-15 record, -309 differential)
Run home: Titans (away) on Sunday.
Predicted finish: They can’t sink any lower and could only jump out of 15th if they make up a points differential of 100-plus on the Dolphins. Unlikely doesn’t begin to cover it.
16. St George Illawarra (16 points, 5-18 record, -179 differential)
Run home: Knights (home) on Saturday night.
Predicted finish: Have rocked up more moral victories than the England men’s cricket team in recent weeks but will at least avoid the wooden spoon, unless they cop an absolute flogging and the Tigers towel up Manly.
17. Wests Tigers (14 points, 4-19 record, -248 differential)
Run home: Sea Eagles (away) on Friday evening.
Predicted finish: The dream of avoiding a second straight spoon is technically still alive if they pummel Manly and the Dragons get trounced by Newcastle for a collective 70-point swing. It’s the hope that kills Wests Tigers fans.
First appear at NRL final round equation: The best and worst outcomes for each team as five teams fight for last three playoff berths
